To The Breeders, To Make Much Of Time
This time, when I looked at the numbers, lo and behold! I saw Charles Darwin amidst 13 new varieties of sweet sorghum, 13 survivors of selection. Darling, I’m referring to the biologist who revolutionized the world of thought by inventing the concept of evolution, coming out in 1859 with such radical idea in his book The Origin Of The Species By Means Of Natural Selection. Darwin’s works were violently attacked in those days (blupete.com); this article is another attack on another front today.
‘Natural selection’ Darwin says; those who are the fittest to live are the ones who survive. The law of the jungle. Well, today, we’re going to talk about un-natural selection, that is, man-made. The law of the juggle. Let me explain using theoretical, what-if data:
The plant breeders of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) were able to create 13 new varieties of sweet sorghum: AA, BB, CC, DD, EE, FF, GG, HH, II, JJ, KK, LL, MM. Afterwards, the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UP Los Baños) test-planted all 13 varieties in 13 regions of the Philippines. Here are the highest average yielders per hectare:
91 tons, AA, Region 03
69 tons, BB, Region 10
78 tons, CC, Region 04
50 tons, DD, Region 05
55 tons, EE, Region 11
40 tons, FF, Region 08
65 tons, GG, Region 07
70 tons, HH, Region 12
73 tons, II, Region 06
78 tons, JJ, Region 02
78 tons, KK, Region 13
99 tons, LL, Region 01
78 tons, MM, Region 09
The law of the juggle says the highest goes to the top, the lowest to the bottom. So, following ‘survival of the fittest,’ following protocol, we recommend to the Philippine Seed Board (PSB) variety LL (99 tons) for public consumption. LL is the fittest of them all. The PSB approves.
Now, the mean best yield of the 13 ICRISAT sorghums is 71 tons (91 + 69 + 78 + 50 + 55 + 40 + 65 + 70 + 73 + 78 + 78 + 99 + 78 equals 924 divided by 13). That means the top 2 new sorghums yield higher than the average new sorghum by at least 20 tons. I’m happy for the peasants, because I believe sweet sorghum is the single best crop for small Filipino farmers. To the poor tillers of the soil, sweet sorghum yields food from the grains, animal fodder from the stalks, fuel from the bagasse, fertilizer from the crop residue; sweet sorghum can be grown in the worst places. Syrup from sweet sorghum gives us ethanol, a biofuel priced above diamonds now that gasoline and diesel are priced above rubies. In short, sweet sorghum equals hope.
But, I have a problem recommending the top new sorghum variety to farmers in those 13 regions of my country. Why?
Because, looking again, I find the yields in:
Region 03: AA highest, the rest lower;
Region 10: BB highest, the rest lower;
Region 04: CC highest, the rest lower;
Region 05: DD highest, the rest lower;
Region 11: EE highest, the rest lower;
Region 08: FF highest, the rest lower;
Region 07: GG highest, the rest lower;
Region 12: HH highest, the rest lower;
Region 06: II highest, the rest lower;
Region 02: JJ highest, the rest lower;
Region 13: KK highest, the rest lower;
Region 01: LL highest, the rest lower;
Region 09: MM highest, the rest lower.
13 different highest yields. Do you realize what that means? Recommending only 1 to all 13 is recommending to 13 less than the best sweet sorghum in each region – except Region 01.
You see, if the UP Los Baños data is at all accurate and reliable, the most outstanding variety of all, LL, yields 99 tons in Region 01, true – but lower than 78 tons in Region 13, lower than 65 tons in Region 07, lower than 40 tons in Region 08, and so on and so forth. The data means that LL is best suited to Region 01, to the climate prevailing and soil conditions obtaining there; AA is best suited to Region 03, and so on and so forth.
Best fit. I must therefore revise ‘survival of the fittest’ to ‘survival of all the fittest’ – it is fittest that I recommend not just 1 or 2 but a total of 13 highest-yielding varieties (HYVs) – that is, a different HYV fits best a different region. In other words, there are 13 sorghum HYVs all in all for me to recommend, each one the highest for that region. That means I have saved at least 12 generations of sorghum breeding & selection for 12 other new varieties of sorghum. 12 years saved?
I submit that the faulty logic of ‘survival of the fittest’ in testing new crop varieties originated from the concept of the average (or mean). Suppose the average yield for LL was derived from these yields in 9 different sites in that same region: EE 88, NT 93, NF 95, NS 97, NE 98, OH 100, OO 100, OT 100, OX 120 tons. So, we find 99 tons as the mean yield (no site), 98 tons (Site NE) as the median yield, and 100 tons (Sites OH, OO, OT) as the mode yield. The difference between mean and median and mode is a significant 1 ton. Since there’s no such thing as an average sorghum; the median is an arbitrary figure – I’ll pick the mode yield, reflecting the trend of the yields of LL in that region – there are 3 sites with 100 tons. LL’s best yield is 100, not 99 tons. 120 tons (Site OX) is a fluke.
Don’t forget that a crop variety is site-specific, growing best in one place and not another. Therefore, in un-natural selection, ‘the survival of the fittest’ fits best the Site in the Region, not the Country. That’s the fittest I can say, right?
Below are two reactions to my theoretical excursion above:
Belum Reddy, the Sweet Sorghum Man of ICRISAT, tells me: ‘Frank! You are right; sweet sorghums are site/season specific. So we need to test them in the target area before we recommend.’
Santiago R Obien, the one I have called in the pages of American Chronicle ‘Wizard of Rice,’ has an interesting story:
Take a rice line that eventually was named variety ‘Angelica,’ for example – in the national coordinated test, it gave the highest yield in PhilRice Agusan (Norte) but its national average yield was one of the lowest among several ‘lines’ tested in 7 or 9 locations nationwide. If we followed the usual procedure, this line (now named ‘Angelica’) would have been discarded. But I told my staff in PhilRice Agusan, ‘grow that line in Agusan and develop it as a variety for the Caraga Region. (Caraga is cloudy most of the days, hardly any distinct dry season …) Thus, ‘Angelica’ was most adopted in the Region. It became popular, and was popularized by the lady Governor of Agusan del Norte at that time: Angelica Amante.
What can I say? All’s well that tests well.
Also published by the American Chronicle in a slightly different version.
Copyright 2007 October 1 by Frank A Hilario
